1. In the Excel file Surgery Infections, develop spreadsheet models for forecasting the surgery infection rates. Use an exponential smoothing model with smoothing constant a = 0.5, and weighted moving average with k = 3 and weights 10%, 20% and 70%. Compare them on the basis of the usual error metrics. 2. Consider the data in the Excel file Nuclear Power. a. Use simple linear regression to forecast the data. What would be the forecasts for the next three years? b. Are the data autocorrelated? Construct first- and second-order autoregressive models and compare the results to part (a).